Apr
30
2003The Five Stages of Hype
30
2003
The launch of Apple’s Music Store will provide an excellent opportunity to test out a theory I’ve developed over many years of tracking high tech news. I call it the Five Stages of Hype, and it goes like this…
STAGE 1: “It’s Revolutionary!”
Over-eager pundits leap at the chance to be the first to write about the new technology, and buy the company line hook, line, and sinker, probably without ever using the product.
STAGE 2: “It’s Nice, but Not Revolutionary!”
The somewhat more mature reporters get smug and “pshaw” the Stage 1 reporters. Stage 2 reporters MAY have used the product, but mostly they’re interested in being seen as boldly bucking the early reports.
STAGE 3: The Geeks Weigh In
After the initial hype dies down a bit, the Geeks get to work. Now you start seeing reports from the geek front lines about features, flaws, security holes, etc. The final verdict is always: Hey, this is just software! It takes bits and turns them into other bits! (Or, in the case of hardware: Hey, this is just electricity, plastic, and metal!)
STAGE 4: The Quiet Time
This is when people actually start using the technology. The company (or companies) responsible quietly improve the technology, other companies develop similar technology. Aside from rehashing an occasional press release, The Media has moved back to Stage 1 regarding something else. This stage could last months or years. This is the only stage that really matters. This is where a technology either dies a quiet death, or moves on to Stage 5. The Segway will not make it to Stage 5.
STAGE 5: Boring Ubiquity
No one quite knows when this stage begins. It’s a very personal thing. One day, you take a look at your day-to-day environment, ponder the various bits of technology around you, and think, “Hey, wait a minute. Ten (or five, or two) years ago, no one would have imagined this stuff. Now I just take it for granted.” There’s no press release. No Dateline Special Report. You just look at the DVD player, TiVo, microwave, or wireless optical mouse, go “huh”, and get back to your bowl of Cheerios.